Economic Crisis

SirenSongWoman

Cathlete
I know there are people on this board who know about money and I'd be interested in hearing your thoughts on the latest wave of bank crises. Bale them out? Let them sink? What would be the impact on us ordinary people who are just hanging on, one way or the other. I have an appointment but it's my off day and I'm catching a lot of CNN and checking in here off-and-on. I've been listening to the pros-and-cons and varied opinions regarding what to do. Frankly, though, I'm more interested in YOUR viewpoints, especially those of you involved in the financial industry. It all scares the H*ll out of me. Just when you thought things couldn't get worse...
 
First I will say that NO, I do not live in a bubble. I choose not to watch the news, nothing good is ever on. I have heard something about the bank thing. Can you possibly give me a short run down of what you are talking about. :confused:
 
I'm astounded at the nerve of these institutions to ask for taxpayer help when their practices have been questionable at best, and illegal at worst.

I don't think there's enough money in the treasury to save them all... I guess it's sink or swim for most of them.
 
Hi Tami! You're right there is never any good news.
The short answer is that over the weeknd the federal reserve had mtgs with Wall Street to come up with solutions for the following crisis'
Merryl Lynch has been bought by Bank of America for pennies on the dollar to keep them from going bankrupt
Lehman Brothers filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy after 96(?) years in business
AIG the nation's largest insurance company is on the edge of the cliff, won't take much to push it off.
Rumors also swirl that Washington Mutual and Wachovia aren't far behind.
Also the auto industry is considering seeking a gov't bailout in the trillions!
Just the facts as my feeble brain has processed them!

The following has no political bent. I will not ever identify myself as liberal or conservative. Not the place for it, but since we've been discussing home budgets,etc. I feel ok replying to the thread on a strictly personal level only.
I have no answers or even real opinions. I'm trying to keep my home economy afloat and the only thing I understand from all the bailouts (Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac) is those costs will be passed on to taxpayers. The gov't has NO money to *give* these companies yet it seems to produce trillions of dollars out of thin air.
I don't get it other than I know *we the people* will all be affected in some manner or another.

Becky
 
Last edited:
The money will be borrowed, of course...from foreign banks, most likely China will be the biggest lender. I wonder how many people realize how much the United States of America is being parceled up and sold to other countries.
 
I'm not in the financial industry, but because my husband and I have to manage a lot of money for ourselves, our business, and my MIL, my husband has been doing nothing but financial stuff for the last day and a half. Basically, what he's learned is that many of the insurance companies and investment banks were basically built on a house of cards called credit default swap -- insuring each other, insuring that loans wouldn't default and now of course they have. This business is five times the size of the GDP of the US -- it's gone from $0 to $65 trillion in about ten years. It's been unregulated and it's basically a giant shell game. Now that everyone is calling in loans, everyone who had lots invested in this credit default swap stuff is going under. Ok, so I don't understand a whole lot more than that, so people may shoot me down and tell me I don't know what I'm talking about. I'm still reading, still learning, but pretty paranoid about what could happen -- I think things are going to get a lot worse for the US.

ETA - government bail out or not it's still a bad situation -- if the govt bails them out, they are doing it simply by printing money, so we may have horrible, horrible inflation --- inflation that we've probably not seen in our lifetimes in this country.

-Beth
 
All I know is that I am very nervous. Lehman brothers was founded in 1850 and weathered the stock market crash of 1929 and the Great Depression.
 
Thanks, Becky! I was nervous posting that, because I don't really feel like I understand it all, but I do have some insight.

The really scary thing is that all of this has worldwide repercussions, too. The credit crisis is worldwide, apparently. On top of that, we are so into debt with China and India. If they decide they want to collect, who knows what will happen!

-Beth
 
OMG, this is terrifying. I had no idea it was this bad. I'm still kind of young and don't have money invested in many things and don't have a mortgage so I've been trying to understand and comprehend what all of this means.

The fact that Lehman Brothers survived the Great Depression but have gone under now is the most terrifying part of all of this. This is so much worse than I thought it was.
 
I am in the real estate industry so I have a pretty good understanding of the financial markets and while getting my MBA economics was a hammered into our poor heads :p It is a pretty complex system that not only involves our national economy but I will try to explain it as simplified as possible.

When a US bank fails the money up to certain cap is refunded to the bank customer through the FDIC, so most of the money that we have in our checking and savings accounts are FDIC insured. If a US bank goes belly up there obiviously is an impact as lost jobs, angry shareholders, etc. but it usually only has a negative impact on the geographical area.

The government has not bailed out any local banks and I don't think they will.

The downfall of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would have had much greater implications, you could compare it somewhat to a wildfire shaking loose and not a localized explosion, effecting our national and the global economy.

If you buy a house your local bank or lender would take the money that they have from deposits from their customers and you would pay your principal and interest over 15 or 30 years back to them. However, they would be limited in how much they can lend (limited deposits) and whereas your interest rate would stay the same, the interest rate they are paying on those deposits fluctuate and they could be taking a loss.

That's why secondary lenders were establisehd. Freddie and Fannie are secondary mortgage institutions, meaning they are providing liquidity to the primary lender, the Wells Fargos, Washington Mutuals, credit unions etc. Freddie repackages the loans and sells them as securities, Fannie repackages the loans that they are "buying" into bonds and sell them off to investors for an agreed upon interest. Usually several hundred mortgages are lumped together into those bonds, under the assumption that only a few will default. That is a great model as long as the housing market was doing well. They were pretty low risk for investors because Fannie Mae would make up for any missed payments or losses on the loans that were lumped into those bonds.

Now, whereas we had local investors a great deal was also purchased by foreign investors. Chinese central banks and Persian Gulf governments took the dollars we spent for oil and manufactured goods and would spend them on US Treasure Bonds, therefore financing our consumption and keeping interest rates low. Those treasury bonds always were a safe bet, but as the Feds slashed interest rates a few years ago, these foreign investors moved from treasurey bonds to the bonds from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. With their implicit guarantee, they were deemed to be just as safe as U.S. government bonds but paid a slightly higher interest rate. As problems with Fannie and Freddie became more apparent foreign investors started backing out, not wanting to buy those bonds anymore, because of fear that Fannie or Freddie would go bankrupt but Fannie and Freddie needed to sell billions of dollars of debt (loans) on a weekly basis, money that they had already given to local lenders.

The US government had to step in to keep the capital flowing and avoid an implosion of our financial markets and our economy.

I, however, completely disagree with the spending of tax payer money for bail outs without the restructuring of those companies and I do think the bail out "without strings attached" is completely irresponsible. As the mortgage industry was booming the CEOs of Fannie and Freddie took home millions of $$ in salaries and bonuses, and now we are bailing them out and won't get the money back. This money should have been a temporary loan and to be repaid to the American tax payers once they start getting out of red.

But the main question for me is, how did we get there? And what are we gonna do to make sure this does not repeat?

The main culprit in the housing crisis started with the deregulation of the mortgage industry, a bill that was written by John McCain's economy advisor, Phil Gramm and passed through the Republican Congress.

The deregulation of the mortgage industry resulted in what I call the "anyone who could fog a mirror will get approved for a mortgage law". As a real estate agent I was often speechless by the madness that mortgage lenders called a loan and suggested to borrowers.

I am all for free markets and capitalism but there are some sectors that need to be regulated. Without wanting to make this a political thread government regulation has it's place and I bet anything that in retrospect some people would have loved to have a bureaucrat stand between them and an insane loan that ruined their and their family's life.

If it wasn't so serious I'd be somewhat amused about the people yelling at the top of their lungs "no tax-and-spend". What else are we supposed to do "borrow-and-spend"? We are in a huge hole and if we don't stop this insanity we all better start learning Chinese or Arabic :eek:
 
Last edited:
Being in the financial industry myself, I sense that there will be more banks sinking too. The problem is that too the FDIC is tapped out of funds. Credit unions may faire better but alot of them have gotten into trouble with bad loans as well with mortgages and construction.
Beth and Becky are both correct on their posts. Money magazine, US News & World Report, and Time are all good sources on this subject.
We have a long ways to go before the light at the end of the tunnel.
 
I knew I could count on people here to clear this up better for me. Now, though, I think I'm going to be sick. Carola, I especially want to thank you for your explanation which takes me point-by-point through this mess in a way even CNN hasn't yet done. Last week I explained that my being off work for 5 months really hurt me but I didn't explain how. Mostly what happened was I fell behind on a couple of credit card payments and, overnight, my fabulous credit score plummeted, and my credit card interest rates shot through the roof (literally raising from 9.99 to 28.99% overnight). It only took a couple of late payments on a couple of credit cards and ALL my credit card interest rates tripled, even though the others were paid on time. Several of my co-workers have insisted that the rise in the interest rates on my credit cards is only partly due to a few slow pays on my part but largely due to the cost of the bank's stupid mortgage lending practices being passed on to credit card holders. I remember when I went in for my mortgage the lender told me that with my credit score and income, I qualified for a mortgage FOUR TIMES what I was getting. Can you imagine If I'd taken the BAIT? I'd never have been able to keep up and would be losing my house now. I don't know how many credit card holders who are behind in a payment or two are getting hit but I would like to warn everyone to be very careful about payment due dates. I'm told it only takes one late pay for the all the banks you do business with to jack up your interests rates and tack on fees as they see fit. This has already happened to several of my co-workers. It's just nuts.

So, all you who are in the position to know, why are the banks allowed to do this? Was a law changed recently allowing banks new leeway to torture it's (credit card) customers or has it always been legal for them to do this and they just never took advantage of it? Is it all JUST the bank's way of recouping the costs they've lost with all the defaulted mortgages that they should have had better sense than to have agreed to in the first place? All the interest rates, fees and fines are doing is forcing record numbers of Americans into bankruptcy and credit counseling (which, I'm told hurts your credit just as much as bankruptcy, if not more) so the banks wind up not getting their money anyway.
 
All the loan stuff used to be regulated, but as hiitdogs said, the deregulation has happened in recent years -- I thought Clinton was actually the one who put the nail in the coffin on it, but perhaps it was started by Phil Gramm. I heard Obama being asked what he thought about bailouts and his reply was something like "well, that industry has a 'heads I win, tails you lose' philosophy, where "you" is the tax payer. If they want to be bailed out, they're going to have to be regulated." Amen.

-Beth
 
Okay, I missed that specific and need to go back and re-read that. So Phil Gramm is The Antichrist here... Deregulation. Has that ever worked for anything? It seems every time deregulation happens the cost of whatever's been deregulated skyrockets.
 
I hear ya, sista :) A lot of people are in the same situation. Unfortunately, the credit card companies have been able for a long time to arbitrarily change the interest rate. Yes, they hike up your interest rate if you make a late payment. What many people don't know even if you have a perfect payment history with them they can hike up your rate, citing a "universal default clause". Credit card companies check your credit rating periodically, if you defaulted on a payment with any other creditor or if your debt to income ratio increases, whammy!! Citibank did that to me a few years ago when a loan showed up on my credit report that wasn't mine.

If you had several late payments as you mentioned they probably won't negotiate your interest rate (unless you have made at least 6 months of timely payments), however, if you are struggeling with your payments call your credit card company and ask for their "hardship program". They will probably brush you off initially, you will need to be persistent. If the first customer service rep says no, ask for their supervisor, just go up the ladder as far as you can. If you don't get anywhere, call the next day, you will probably get a new rep and/or supervisor. I had to call 20 times until I finally had someone on the phone who was a decision maker.

With a hardship program you won't be able to use your credit card anymore but your interest rate will be 1 or 2 % and you stand a fighting chance to actually pay that thing off.

If you need more information about it, PM me. I have become an unwilling expert in negotiating with banks and mortgage companies - I am a real estate agent and many of my friends and clients are going through tough times.

The madness is excruciating. How do they expect that someone who already had problems making their payment at 9 % could make a payment at triple the interest rate.
 
Carola, you are a dear. I'm visiting with a credit counselor tomorrow and taking along what you've said here. I'm not committing to anything yet, while I go over my options and meet with counselors and attorneys, but I'll let you know.

You know how they say misery loves company? I don't. My misery over what's happened to the middle class in my country during the past 8 years is matched only by my terror that it won't end on November 4. And for no other reason than that Americans are afraid to try something new. So many of our people prefer to stay right where they are, like cats clinging desperately to a tree in a hurricane, than to fall into the hands of rescue. I never would have dreamed that Americans could be so rigid in their fear.
 
Stack of cards is an excellent description of AIG. Usa goverment now have an 80% stake in this company. If it had went down it would have effected at 70,000,00 Us citizens. Its off shoots arew massive world wide. Plane leasing etc. Bitmover page 1 is spot on. BBC gives full and accurate detail on national news bulletins. I have watched Fox News and CNN and the information being delivered is more sensational than fact.
 
Don't be so sure about Lehman Brothers - the mentality that goverened them - the integrity of that generation is no longer...I should know - I went to MBA school with the likes that produced the leaders of Enron, AT&T, and great companies that were bungled by greed, stupidity and hubris. Lehman brothers has been merges and divested and not the same place it was even 15 years ago....

A pundit on the radio gave an analogy....your cousin is in ruin....you mortgage your house to get him going again on his word he will pay you back with interest....but he loans the money to pals in China.....who get nationalized and closed off, can't pay him back....he, not having any savings at all, no assets that are free and clear, can't pay YOU back.....you default on your mortgage and your BANK, which has creditors demanding their share of savings and shareholders who were promised dividends, make a run on the bank, who has lent out all its cash.....the bank fails....those with over 100,000 in gross assets lose anything over that - but then the public doesn't want a bail out - so the ripple effect is a massive disaster.
 
I have been in the securities industry for a number of years, but I have to disagree with Jennifer in MI. I would NOT go to Money magazine or other such nonsense for financial news. Those magazines are essentially the tabloids of financial news. People panicking and pulling their money out of the market helped cause Lehman's collapse (among a laundry list of other things).

Actually, from my stand point, while the markets are falling, and everything seems to be collapsing around us, as they say, it is always darkest before the dawn. This is actually a sensational buying opportunity because your dollar is going so much further than it would have a year ago.
 

Our Newsletter

Get awesome content delivered straight to your inbox.

Top